A fresh look at the 2016 F1 driver market

Photo from Mark Haggan.

Next week is a vital one for Formula One. Lotus will appear in court to settle their unpaid income tax and national insurance to HMRC on Monday, and the outcome has the potential to dictate the team’s future within the sport.

What is keeping them in play is that, we believe, Renault’s buy-out of the team is nearing completion, which should stabilise the team financially. Pastor Maldonado was confirmed at the team for next year this week; contrary to what we expected if the buy-out was to happen. Maldonado’s sponsorship money is a strong asset for a financially struggling team, so it makes sense that the Venezuelan has been signed to cover off Renault backing out of the deal at the last minute.

While we expected Romain Grosjean to be staying with the team, it looks as though this will not be the case. He is due to go to Haas as he eyes a potential Ferrari drive in 2017, when we expect Kimi Raikkonen to retire from Formula One.

Haas will announce their driver line-up on Tuesday. They have revealed that at least one of their drivers will be a Ferrari young driver, which points towards Ferrari test and reserve driver Esteban Gutierrez. He has been favourite for the seat due to his marketability, and because he still has a point to prove that he is a skilled driver who never got to show his promise whilst he was driving for Sauber.

So where does that leave Lotus? GP3 driver Esteban Ocon has been lined up for the seat, but I think he lacks the experience Renault are looking for in their line-up for their first year back in the sport. Jolyon Palmer has been somewhat overlooked as an option for next year, potentially because of his rookie status in the sport, despite taking part in a significant number of FP1 sessions for Lotus this year.

It might well be that the man we expected to be the second driver at Haas, Jean-Eric Vergne, could take the seat. Renault taking a French driver will be strong in terms of marketing, but he is also an experienced and fast driver; having been a contender to replace Mark Webber at Red Bull when he retired from the sport in 2013.

Vergne has been linked with a Formula One return for a few months now, but it still remains unclear as to whether or not he would continue with his Formula E commitments and prioritise Formula One when they clash, or if the team would buy him out of his current contract with DS Virgin Racing. Time will tell.

Sergio Perez announced his future in Formula One is still with Force India, having previously been linked with Haas and Renault for 2016. However, his former team mate Jenson Button is not sailing in the same boat as the Mexican.

There was a lot of speculation about Button after a disappointing Singapore Grand Prix weekend, which saw Button miss an opportunity to fight for Q3, a 40 second pit stop during the race, and contact with Maldonado before eventually retiring with an overheating gearbox. Fleet Street then began to report that he was expected to announce his retirement from the sport at this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix.

During Thursday’s press conference, he said he no news for us, but that he was in “good talks” with McLaren.

However, McLaren’s managing director Jonathan Neale said on Friday: “We are contracted with him, we want him to stay and we like him very much. But if your driver doesn’t really want to be in the seat, then we have to respect that” – hinting that Button wants to leave the team.

It would seem that with every day that passes and every quote the team gives us, the situation regarding Button’s future will change.

We know that McLaren have two young hotshots waiting in the wings in form of Kevin Magnussen and Stoffel Vandoorne, and that Button is losing his patience with the team and not enjoying the sport as much as he did. But we also know that McLaren are keen for him to stay for the sake of continuity to help develop the Honda power unit and the team.

An answer to the question will surely come in the next two weeks, as the option to retain Button for 2016 expires at the Russian Grand Prix at Sochi.

Lastly it looks as though Manor are set for a revamp going into 2016.

Alexander Rossi was put into the car in place of Roberto Merhi in Singapore and, after an impressive debut, it looks as though he will be staying with the team for next year.

Manor are also creating strong links with Mercedes; supposedly using a Mercedes engine next year and a chassis designed by Williams – a Mercedes customer team. The current world champions want to put their DTM driver and reserve F1 driver Pascal Wehrlein in the Manor next year, which of course means a short-lived F1 career for Will Stevens and Roberto Merhi.

So with four of the eleven teams that will be on the 2016 grid still with an unconfirmed driver line-up, there are certainly still many rumours to be spread across the paddock. I’ve no doubt that the driver market will take a turn at some point but within the next two weeks we should have a much clearer idea of who will be lining up on the grid come the Australian Grand Prix next year.

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