2016 F1 grid taking shape

Image from Mark Haggan, @markhaggan

After much speculation concerning who will be driving on the Formula One grid in 2016, the teams are beginning the settle contract negotiations and a field for next year is forming.

The front end of the field is set to remain the same, as Mercedes and Ferrari will be retaining their drivers, as will Williams who announced today that Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa will continue their time at the Grove-based outlet.

Lotus are ready to retain Romain Grosjean, but the second seat is still up for grabs. Talks of Renault buying out the team have put Pastor Maldonado’s place in Formula One in jeopardy, as his sponsorship money will no longer be crucial to the team’s survival. 2014 GP2 champion Jolyon Palmer looks the most likely candidate the replace the Venezuelan, having taken part in many FP1 sessions so far this year.

However, Eric Boullier recently said that Honda are still looking for a B-team. With their current financial situation, the prospect of Lotus-Honda could be a very attractive one to the team. This does seem like the less likely of the two options, but it is a possibility. It would keep Lotus on the grid, would give Honda more data for development, and it would give McLaren a place to put one or both or their two young drivers, Kevin Magnussen and Stoffel Vandoorne.

But these two teams are merely small links in a more complicated web. Force India confirmed Nico Hulkenberg this week, but we still await confirmation on the second seat. It will most likely go to Sergio Perez, but there is a chance Maldonado could use his PDVSA sponsorship to take the seat, bringing in money the team is in desperate need of.

Magnussen is another contender, as he has admitted he is in talks with other teams. Ron Dennis said he owes him a drive, after unfairly dropping the Dane at the end of the 2014 season for Fernando Alonso. Boullier also said that McLaren are likely to retain their driver line-up for next year. The team needs continuity during these difficult times, so it is the right decision in my eyes.

But where does this leave Magnussen? Perez says he will announce his plans before the Singapore Grand Prix, and that his seat at Force India is not at risk. So it looks as though Magnussen will have to spend another year on the sidelines.

Unless Honda invest in another team, that is. Manor have good links with McLaren, as they did in their previous incarnation as Marussia. This would of course mean that Will Stevens and Roberto Merhi will lose their places in Formula One. Although McLaren have played down these rumours, it seems to be their only option for a B-team as Renault are closing in on their Lotus deal.

Other current midfield teams look to be more stable. Sauber confirmed Marcus Ericsson and Felipe Nasr in July, and Red Bull and Toro Rosso are happy with their drivers.

As a new team for 2016, Haas are a blank canvas on the Formula One grid. Their strong links with Ferrari points the arrow towards drivers within the Ferrari family, and team owner Gene Haas has said he wants an American driver.

This puts Esteban Gutierrez in a strong position for the seat. He, along with Sergio Perez, were magnets for Mexican fans to the US Grand Prix, and with the return of Mexico to the calendar this year, it would be a marketing dream for Haas. He is also more highly rated than most would expect, as the Sauber he drove in 2013-14 masked his true ability.

GP2 driver and former Caterham and Marussia test driver Alexander Rossi is also in the frame. Again, as an American he is a marketable driver. However, he lacks the experience a young team needs in order to develop and grow.

This is why my bet for the second seat would be Jean-Eric Vergne. He is a well known quantity, is part of the Ferrari family, and has good experience in Formula One. Even though he lost out on a Red Bull drive to Daniel Ricciardo, let’s not forget how closely matched the two were during their time at Toro Rosso and, more often than not, Vergne was quicker in races.

Although the front of the grid is to remain the same, there looks to be some drastic changes in the making in the midfield, which are largely dependent on takeovers, engine deals and sponsorship money.

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